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CNET interview with Ray Ozzie and his “quiet revolution at Microsoft”

No sooner do I talk about how Ray Ozzie is connecting with customers that I see this on CNET News today, discussing SilverLight at Mix and “about the company’s ongoing transition from the age of desktop software to a new era.”


Ozzie’s quiet revolution at Microsoft
Chief software architect Ray Ozzie says nearly everything Microsoft does will include an online services component.



There is this impression that Microsoft is protecting its turf when it comes to Web-based Office-style applications. You see Google doing it and start-ups like Zoho–and there are online ERP applications–and Microsoft hasn’t done that yet. But Microsoft could do it, so why don’t you?


Ozzie: People as far back as Desktop.com have done it. Well, I don’t know how to say it other than to say that we’re running a fairly significant business. Protecting implies setting up barriers–there are no barriers. These people are free to go take whatever solutions they want to put them in a browser. We believe–and I believe this deeply, I’ve been a desktop business for a while–that the deployment environment of using desktop tools on a PC is a really valuable one. Sometimes, just because you can doesn’t mean that you necessarily should. To the extent that there are scenarios that involve the Web that are very useful, we are going to go after those scenarios because it helps our customers–we got to stay focused on those customers.


We’re not going to be in a reactionary mode that just because somebody proves that something can be done, and it has some trade-offs, then we just immediately have to follow suit. I think that there are a lot of lessons they learned right now with those competitors of things that they’ve done that people just aren’t using, and things that they’ve done where people are actually using it in ways that they aren’t using desktop apps today. So I think that we are all learning from this and our product will end up in some hybrid form.

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Perspectives on the transition to TV in the US, from analog to digital in 2009

This from CNET this morning… a view on the future of digital TV in the US by Jason Oxman, vice president of communications for the Consumer Electronics Association. This was in rebuttal to a piece by Michael Hulfactor –“When regular TV broadcasts go dark” from early April (sounds like a cable television reality show) — the managing director of DecisionTrend Research, on the transition to digital TV. 



U.S. is ready to move to digital TV
Bumps in the road notwithstanding, the Consumer Electronics Association’s Jason Oxman says transition from analog to digital TV is on schedule.



Between now and February 17, 2009, all new television sets shipped to retailers will include a digital tuner capable of receiving over-the-air digital broadcasts. Cable and satellite households will be equipped by their service provider with everything they need for the transition, so consumers will see no change. And for those over-the-air households who haven’t made the switch, there are plenty of choices and government-industry resources available to make the transition smoothly.


Free over-the-air television, broadcast with crystal-clear digital clarity, will be available to households that wish to receive it after the February 2009 analog shut-off. Consumers who already have a digital television will be able to receive these broadcasts via an antenna, cable or satellite.


Consumers who do not own a digital television, and do not subscribe to a multichannel video provider, can purchase from local retailers an inexpensive (as low as $60) and easy to install digital-to-analog converter box to connect to their analog sets. Even better, the government will have two $40 coupons per household available for these boxes beginning in January 2008 that will bring the cost down to around $20 per box.



This from Michael Hulfactor…



Normally, technology adoption involves a choice between competing solutions in the marketplace, but the federal mandate removes from consumers the power to choose and buy technology. Consumers will not be able to continue receiving free over-the-air broadcasting.


By February 17, 2009, those who wish to continue watching TV will have had to purchase something new, such as a digital-capable TV or a special analog-to-digital conversion box. Or they may abandon the free over-the-air model altogether and buy cable or satellite services. If they don’t, television will go dark for them.

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On NPR: Engineer Shortage? Vivek Wadhwa and Duke University Study Says No

For my friends in Engineering Excellence as well as those interested in following outsourcing issues and the concern of offshoring engineering jobs. I listened to Vivek Wadhwa on NPR this morning, Duke University’s executive-in-residence in the Master of Engineering Management program.



Listen to this story... Morning Edition, April 30, 2007 · Why are so many engineering jobs being sent overseas? Leaders of tech companies say the United States does not produce enough engineers. But a Duke University study says the real issue is cheap overseas labor. Vivek Wadhwa discusses his study’s findings. 


He spoke about the quality of engineering hiring overseas… primarily for cost reasons. Wadhwa discussed that many of the engineers in India and China aren’t adequately prepared, and that the assumption that the US isn’t producing enough engineers is wrong.



“I researched exactly what was going on in india and found that India and China has no real advantage in quantity or quality. Asked company why they were going overseas and the #1 reason was cost, cost, cost… the economic benefits.”


There was also a snippet of an interview with Bill Gates, who said “many people who look at off-shoring are looking to save costs. The way we are do our R&D, that not the key thing: it’s the quality of the innovation how quickly we get things done.”


Listen to this story...Also on Morning Edition, Adam Davidson reported that Asia is producing engineers short on skills, and that “many graduates of those nations’ lesser engineering schools lack the skills to be hired, at home or abroad.” He also cited a recent report from the Chinese government, stating “60% of engineering school graduates are not just unemployed, they are unemployable.”


This article from Duke News looks at the increased number of engineering and technology graduates in China, ahead of the U.S. and India.



“The trend is part of a complex picture that challenges popular wisdom and sheds new light on how the United States and its two emerging Asian rivals -– China and India — may compete for the technical talent that will underlie future jobs and industries.


“Where the Engineers Are” is one of four articles about India and China appearing Friday in the journal published jointly by the National Academy of Sciences and others. It is available online at http://www.issues.org/23.3/wadhwa.html.


“The Duke authors — Vivek Wadhwa, Gary Gereffi, Ben Rissing and Ryan Ong — dispute popular claims that India and China are graduating many times more baccalaureate-level engineers than the United States. However, they say China leads the other two countries in producing master’s and doctoral degrees. Looking beyond these statistics, they examine how the situation is affected by the quality of Indian and Chinese graduates, international job marketability, salary deflation and unemployment.”


Fascinating. I’ve downloaded the report for a full read, which I’ll do later this week.


As noted during the NPR interview, Wahhwa’s report is available on-line and is “part of an ongoing study to compare the number of U.S. engineering graduates to those in developing nations, particularly India and China. This is a complex issue and requires further study but this preliminary report raises several questions about the numbers quoted in the popular press. This report was developed by graduate students of Duke University’s Master of Engineering Management Program in the Pratt School of Engineering under the guidance of Dr. Gary Gereffi, and Vivek Wadhwa with consulting assistance from Katzenbach Partners LLC.”


Download the full report (as pictured) Framing the Engineering Outsourcing Debate: Placing the United States on a Level Playing Field with China and India, as well as the Appendix.


Also of interest: previous reports from team members are available online:


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Your questions: has Vista lived up to the expectations for end users?

“Do you feel Vista lived up to the expectations for Windows users? What key benefits do you think, if any, were in support of the “wow” factor Microsoft promised its clients?”


(For more on Vista, see http://www.microsoft.com/windows/products/windowsvista/default.mspx)


In a word, yes. But individual needs and benefits vary. And I’ll note that Vista has just released, so there is room to add to the positive customer experience, and continue to fulfill customer expectations. (See also my related post on Dell’s announcement to offers Windows XP and Vista to customers.)


First, I’d steer you to the Windows Vista new features list site to take a look at what’s what. For deploying and supporting Vista from an IT Professional perspective, I’ll point you to the Technet Windows Vista site.


Personally, I like the new user interface and experience in Vista, esecially the addition of the Vista Sidebar and Gadgets, with small thumbnail looks at windows open on the desktop (from the taskbar), and the slick folder icons that also offer a quick preview into the folder before you open it. The new improvements to Windows Movie Maker, the new Windows Photo Gallery and security improvements have been noted broadly (some even in Apple’s parodies), as has improved hardware and peripheral support. For me, this provided some of the “wow.”


I’ve recently ordered more memory for my notebook, given I’m running Windows Vista and Office 2007 in addition to other new applications that will benefit from the added legroom.


Rob Pegoraro of the Washington Post has a god article in his article “Vista, for Better and Worse” that offers a good initial look, particularly noting the need to first evaluate your current machine if you are considering an upgrade:



“Nobody should think of buying Vista without first running Microsoft’s free Windows Vista Upgrade Advisor ( http://microsoft.com/windowsvista/getready) to see if his hardware and software measures up.” 


Also see the reviews in PC Magazine on Vista and Paul Thurrott’s initial review on his winsupersite (http://www.winsupersite.com/) — I agree with most of his Good and Bad points.


There are caveats, as I have noted on my blog, particularly related to machines that simply aren’t worth the move to Vista right now (primarily our machine in the kid’s playroom, and the computer I use with Digidesign’s ProTools system, both on Windows XP SP2). 


Also see my posts on Should I upgrade to Windows Vista? and 10 Things You Need to Know about Deploying Windows Vista.


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Your questions: on Apple vs. Microsoft, Google’s impact… and Zune

Another couple of questions… this time with a look at a few other companies in the market…



“What are your thoughts on the Apple vs. Microsoft debate that are persistently flooding the airwaves and invading our precious commercial time? Why has Microsoft not shot back at the discouraging remarks Mac-ercials present about Windows operating system software?”


Well, I enjoy the Mac commercials, so I’m probably the wrong person to ask such a leading question such as this one (around the term “invading our precious commercial time.”) It goes to show that Apple has a good agency: the commercial are memorable, maintains a similar theme, and pokes fun at computers in general. Owning computers that run the Windows OS (both XP and now Vista) as well as Apple’s OS, I should also say that I have may share of issues across with Apple’s products as well as our own.


As for competitors, I look for major hardware OEMs, like Dell, HP, Lenovo, Sony and Toshiba to prop up the ads…Dell had the memorable Dell-guy (busted), HP has the new “Get Personal” campaign (I like the Mark Burnett and Jay-Z ads, which are on-line), and Toshiba’s Tablet PC on-line campaign is slick.


But I don’t think that a rebuttal campaign works. (Here’s a humourous look at the “I’m a Mac, and I’m a PC” ads, courtesy of engadget.) Perhaps we’ll see more thoughtful campaigns in the future in the vein of the ones back in 1994 that asked “where do you want to go today?”


And this question on Google…



‘It has been said that Google has driven many employees from Microsoft recently due to various reasons. How strict are the non-compete restrictions that you are made to pledge upon employment verification?”


Hmmm… Not sure that the implied statement in the question is true, as I don’t think that any one company has driven employees from Microsoft. (And I’m not sure who has said this publicly.)


I can’t represent all employees at Microsoft, but there are reasons that people may decide to join or leave a company at any time. More money, more time, greater responsibilities, better title… there are many reasons.


When I lived and worked in Silicon Valley, I found that the rule generally is that employees are employed “at-will” (read more on the wiki entry on the topic). People are tied to companies for different reasons: comp models, passion for a sector, tie to a new product launch, venerable stock option vesting periods… you name it. I know people who left their firms in SiValley and joined Google (disclaimer: a number of old friends are employees at Google), as well as any number of other start-ups, established companies or even out of the tech job market overall.


People are generally free to go where they want to go and work where they wish to work, at least until it often appears one enters the executive ranks: then you often find details of comp packages and ‘golden handcuffs’ documented in various SEC filings. In some cases, there may be more at stake. You might also see this miniMSFT’s post on when Vic Gundotra left MSFT for Google, and was “taking a year off as part of his non-compete.”


At many companies, people come and go every day, for an assortment of reasons. I suggest that you take a look at the various blogs of many employees and check on their reasons for leaving their last company.


Last, this question on Zune… in brief…



“What are your feelings on the Zune launch?” [My note: And I’ll add: what about the continued pressure from the competition, like the iPod?]


IMHO, I think that the Zune launch was generally successful for a new $249 consumer electronic, especially in a highly competitve market segment. People who were eager to get one of the first ones available spoke highly of the device. And I dedicated a few posts to the Zune.


The interesting thing to see will be how the response continues, given the established competition from the iPod with several years in the market and 100 million sold thus far. I’m eager to see how the Zune team responds to the various flavours of iPods (from low cost and tiny flash-based to larger hard disc based devices), an ecommerce site with a good user experience (in iTunes) and rich ecosystem of third party partners that has sprung up around the iPod, selling everything from headphones to docks to cases and much more.


(Similarly, I look at how Sandisk responds with their media player lines, particularly with their new Sansa Connect featuring Zing technology. Disclosure again… I have a few good friends at ZING and wish them great success with their new technology and services.)


Folio Kickstand Case for Zune™I’m hopeful that we’ll see similar support available for the Zune: already, I’ve seen a large number of accessories available on the zune accessories site (and the zune top ten list). Generally, it seems that the beachhead that the iPod has established made it easier for vendors of some iPod accessories to also move quickly in support of the Zune.


My favourite after the zune home a/v pack and dock is the belkin folio kickstand case (at right): very slick and perfect for travel as the case holds the Zune at a great angle for landscape viewing.

 

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