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Another look at the year 2038 problem

I was asked last week (again) for guidance I could give (being involved in time in one way or another, in addition to my day job) on how Microsoft products may be impacted by the 2038 issue


As I noted in January, the Year 2038 problem (as defined by the Wikipedia entry)



“The year 2038 problem (also known as “Unix Millennium bug”, “Y2K38,” “Y2K+38,” or “Y2.038K” by analogy to the Y2K problem) may cause some computer software to fail before or in the year 2038. The problem affects Unix-like operating systems, which represent system time as the number of seconds (ignoring leap seconds) since 00:00:00 January 1, 1970.[1] This representation also affects software written for most other operating systems because of the broad deployment of C. On most 32-bit systems, the time_t data type used to store this second count is a signed 32-bit integer. The latest time that can be represented in this format, following the POSIX standard, is 03:14:07 UTC on Tuesday, January 19, 2038. Times beyond this moment will “wrap around” and be represented internally as a negative number, and cause programs to fail, since they will see these times not as being in 2038 but rather in 1901. Erroneous calculations and decisions may therefore result.


Some people believed that the bulk of issues would surface on January 19, 2008, the date when new 30-year mortgages and bonds could be impacted.  In fact, much of the impact would have been seen years ago given that there are many financial instruments with a greater than 30 year life span: some mortgages and bonds extend out 40 years, and there are Japanese and English mortgages that can span close to a century.


From what I understand (thanks to the education from Geoff, Shay and several folks in DevDiv), information on how to mitigate the year 2038 bug was included in our Y2K response in the late 1990’s.  And Microsoft has provided guidance and statements on our various web sites, as impacts have generally been product specific for older products no longer in support (unless otherwise indicated in a supporting KB article).


In general…


  • currently supported core OS and mainstream support products operate as designed and with no known negative impact with regards to the 2038 unless otherwise noted.
  • SYSTEMTIME has no problems and can go until the year 30,827.
  • FILETIME, a 64-bit integer (two DWORDs representing LOW and HIGH values) since January 1, 1601 (Julian). It too can represent a 30,000 (or 60,000 unsigned) year interval.
  • Difficulties will be found were developers use C/C++ time_t, which will run out in 2038.

Programs that are compiled with VC8 or newer and do not define _USE_32BIT_TIME_T are immune to Year 2038 problems caused by time_t, assuming that they do not contain bugs themselves (casting a time_t to an int and back will truncate it). I’m told by the Developer division that…


For more references…



Hope this helps.

Tags: Microsoft, Vista, Windows, Time, 2038.


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Your questions: “What’s going on in Iraq next week on daylight saving time?”

A popular question over the last few days…



“What is going on in Iraq next week on daylight saving time?”


As I noted earlier, it looks like Iraq will not observe daylight saving time this year.  The change is currently scheduled to take effect on April 1, 2008. To this point, we haven’t has not been able to officially verify this change, but we’ve spun up resources over the last few weeks to provide guidance, updates and documentation for customers and partners, initially here on the DST & TZ blog and now on a permanent page, Iraq Daylight Saving Time changes, off of the Microsoft DST & TZ site.


What should you do?


In most cases, for consumers and small businesses, probably nothing.


Unless you live in the affected region and actively use Iraq’s Baghdad (Arabic) time zone on your Windows desktop and server operating systems, you probably won’t see or feel any impact. 


If you do use the Baghdad time zone, we recommend that you read the recommended steps on the Iraq Daylight Saving Time changes page.  And please don’t manually adjust the machine’s clock if you do use the Baghdad time zone.  This will cause adverse effects on your environment and it is not supported by Microsoft.  (To read more about why this is a bad idea, see “For DST, do I just adjust my clock in the control panel?”)


Enterprise and multinational customers with a presence in Iraq (or if you schedule meetings via Outlook with customers in the region using the time zone) should review the Iraq Daylight Saving Time changes page, and follow the product group guidance provided – on the page you’ll find a summary of the current status of impacted products and estimated dates when hotfixes will be available.


For details on setting up RSS feeds for these pages, see my post on getting RSS feed updates.


At Microsoft, product teams are moving to a semi-annual update cadence, following the Windows regular cadence for publishing newly legislated DST rules and time zone updates. Annual “Cumulative DST and Time Zone Updates” will be released in November/ December for the coming calendar year, and we’ll also provide for a semi-annual update in the July/August timeframe when needed.  For each, the window closes for additional updates a few months (generally four to six) prior to the release date.  Our goal is that sysadmins and IT Pros can plan on rolling out and installing/ deploying these cumulative update roll-ups as they are published.

<soapbox>


I have to recommend that in order to achieve more seamless transitions to new DST rules and time zones, governments should provide 1) official confirmations of planned changes to DST and time zones, and 2) provide ample advance notice and concentrated efforts on promoting the change to the affected citizens is a requirement.  If you look at how Australia approached their upcoming change in April (more details are available here), the national government allowed eight months or so between the announcement and the actual change.  And as noted on the Australia Eastern & Central 2008 Daylight Saving Changes page (managed by the irrepressible Hugh Jones), the Aussies set up the official Australian Government Time web site to educate end users. 


</soapbox>


Tags: Microsoft, Daylight Saving Time, Daylight Savings Time, RSS, DST, Iraq.


Also available at http://bit.ly/bipS8Y.

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Advisory: Iraq may not observe daylight saving time this year

As I initially reported, we now have it on reasonable authority that Iraq will not switch to daylight saving time as they have in the past, and as noted online and on the Hot Topics for Daylight Saving Time changes site.  As we have more information, we will post it to the Hot Topics page. It appears that this change will go ahead, but unfortunately there’s no official notice on a government site that confirms this information… 

imageMicrosoft has created guidance and is creating specific product hotfixes (where applicable) in response to news reports that indicate Iraq will not recognize or utilize daylight saving time in 2008.  IT professionals and systems administrators should review their systems and installations, and determine is any users or systems will be impacted by this potential change not to use DST in Iraq this year. 

Chances are that your system will not be impacted unless you are using the Baghdad time zone: if you are, then your local time setting and appointments may be off if in fact the country decides not to use DST this year.  I’ve learned that there are customers in the region who use the Kuwait and Riyadh time zone setting, which has the same offset at Baghdad and does not observe DST in 2008.  And many other customers use GMT or Zulu time, and as such would not be affected by the change. 

Microsoft recognizes this as a potential change and provides guidance to customers and partners should they have systems that may be impacted by this change in Iraq, as noted in this technical-guidance post on the Microsoft Daylight Saving Time & Time Zone FAQs Blog.

ADVISORY: Potential DST Change in Iraq – Technical Guidance

Background – Iraq Daylight Saving Time changes for 2008

Microsoft has learned of a possible change to the observance of Daylight Saving Time (DST) in Iraq that could impact customers using the Baghdad time zone which is also called the Arabic time zone (GMT +03:00).  We have unofficial reports that the Ministry of Iraq has decided that the country will no longer observe DST as they have in prior years, which has historically taken effect on April 1, 2008.  This may impact customers and partners in the region who use the Baghdad time zone, including military facilities and other entities engaged in business in or with the region.  We are actively working with members of the military and US government agencies to confirm the change.  At this time it appears that the change is likely but that could be reversed at any time.

Current status of required updates

The product groups are actively engaged and working on building the updates required to lead our affected customers through the coming change…. 

For a summary of the current status of affected products and estimated dates when hotfixes, see in this technical-guidance post

For more updates, check out this post on how to get updates to DST and time zone updates and alerts.

Tags: Microsoft, Daylight Saving Time, Daylight Savings Time, RSS, DST, Iraq.

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Advisory: Potential changes to Daylight Saving Time in Iraq

Microsoft has learned of a potential change to the observance of Daylight Saving Time (DST) in Iraq  that may impact customers using the Baghdad time zone.

An early, unsubstantiated report is that the Ministry of Iraq has decided that the country will no longer observe DST as they have in prior years, currently scheduled to take effect on April 1, 2008. 

Thus far, Microsoft has not been able to officially verify this change: if the change to the implementation of DST in the country is made, this may impact customers and partners in the region who use the Baghdad time zone, including military facilities and other entities engaged in business in or with the region. 

Microsoft is actively working with government representatives and customers in the region to confirm the change in Iraq, while also endeavoring to understand and document the scenarios and implications. 

Specific guidance will be provided as it becomes available on the Microsoft DST & TZ Hot Topics page off of http://www.microsoft.com/time.  For details on setting up RSS feeds for these pages, see my post on getting RSS feed updates.

(cross posted at http://blogs.technet.com/dst2007/archive/2008/03/15/dst-in-iraq-031508.aspx)

Tags: Microsoft, Daylight Saving Time, Daylight Savings Time, RSS, DST. 4,900,000 (up a million items); 4,450,000 (down approx. two million items); 1,880,000 (up)

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The Pros and Cons (or costs) around Daylight Saving Time changes

Yesterday, the Detroit Free Press presented two views on the changes to the schedule on daylight saving time in 2007: one that it saves energy and another that it doesn’t.  These read like a Point-Counterpoint discussion on ABC News, and my unscientific review of articles yesterday points to a majority of opinion that DST doesn’t save much if any energy or money.  In fact, it looks like it increases costs for businesses and headaches for IT Pros and systems administrators.

[Note: I wrote this article on Sunday after verifying that in fact the world continued to spin on its axis after the clocks all moved forward in the US and Canada.  Just posting it now prior to heading off to a working lunch meeting in a different building on campus.] 

The first is an article is by U.S. Representative Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph), who represents Michigan’s 6th Congressional District (http://www.house.gov/upton).  Along with Ed Markey (D-Mass.), representative Upton was one of the two authors of the extension to daylight saving time (which varies with calendars rather than a standard four week extension as Upton describes) in the US Department of Energy’s Energy Policy Act of 2005

“We based the extension on sound science — closely examining the Department of the Navy’s sun tables to determine that a four-week extension would maximize our nation’s energy savings.

“Fast forward to today. The American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy estimates that the cumulative benefit of the four-week extension through 2020 will be a saving of approximately $4.4 billion and a reduction of carbon emissions by 10.8 million metric tons, cutting harmful greenhouse gases.

“Not only is extending daylight saving time an issue of conservation, it is also one of safety. Studies by a leading auto safety group have shown that extending daylight saving will save dozens of lives on our nation’s roads each year. Most accidents occur at dusk, but with the extended DST, our kids will have returned home from school and many folks will have completed their evening commute by sundown.”

The Free Press editorial, “Extended daylight saving time should be reset — it doesn’t save energy”rebuts that the first year with the new DST rules doesn’t save energy… but brings additional headaches…

“What it will do, for the next month or so, is keep sending kids out in the dark to wait for the school bus, make them less alert for the first hour of class and, as evening daylight keeps getting longer, less inclined to come inside to do homework or study.

“Farmers don’t like it much, nor do early morning exercisers and all those people who never seem to really wake up until daylight is coming in through the windows. The later switch in the fall also means little trick-or-treaters miss the fun of setting out on Halloween in the dark.”

Speaking of rug rats in search of sugary treats (we have two at home)… as I mentioned in “What do candy, Microsoft products and Congress have in common?” the change was of potential interest to one industry in particular: candy manufacturers, who reportedly lobbied for an extension to DST: this sunny extension will allow trick-or-treaters to scream “trick-or-treat” and collect candy for an additional hour.

Last fall, I saw a reference to a preliminary study for the California Energy Commission that showed savings during peak hours of 3.4 percent in March and 2.8 percent in November in 2007.  But again that seems to be a minority view: as I noted in a post last week, more recent analysis of the changes in Indiana concluded that DST doesn’t necessarily save energy (as noted here on NPR radio’s site).  The study in the report found that overall, Indiana households spent on average about $3.73 per household per year more on energy due to daylight saving time:…

“Against intuition and contrary to the entire point of government policy, the study found that daylight saving time resulted in an $8.6 million increase in spending on residential electricity.”

Also, I have not seen any follow up from the Dept. of Energy (DOE): as you may recall, in the Energy Policy Act of 2005, Congress retained the right to revert daylight saving time to its previous schedule as soon as the DOE had completed its assessment of the change in 2007.  I have only read passing commentary from the DOE, such as that noted in this link...

“Megan Barnett, a spokeswoman for the U.S. Department of Energy, said the jury still is out on the exact savings nationwide of extending DST.  “We did a preliminary analysis, based on decades-old information, that indicates a very small, or fractional amount, of energy savings,” she said.

My personal suggestion? 

Leave the 2007 DST change as it is.  Live with the new DST rules in the US and Canada. Don’t flip-flop with calendar changes. 

Or if you’re going to make a move to the entry and exit dates on DST, just make one final move and leave it at that.

Countries should closely consider the other incremental costs associated with such changes — in addition to the potential for energy savings — lest they discover after the fact that a “simple time zone change” or “small modified entry/exit date to their observance of DST” impacts more broad than within their own boarders.  Apparently Venezuela had that experience and found that making a sudden change so quickly or with little impact to industry is difficult, having delayed the move to a new time zone not once but six or seven times by my count. 

And if you are going to make a change, ensure that the DOE, Congress — or some government agency (including the venerable DOE, where the change originated before being signed into law) — advertises and promotes the change well in advance as we have seen with the transition to digital TV in the States.

None of this accounts for the changes consumers and professionals must make in their homes and in their businesses. In the technology industry, these changes are cause for many impacts in several areas, from updating computers and business systems to adjusting clocks and devices that are not able to keep up with these changes.

More on how we’re dealing with these changes later this week.  Now, on to lunch.

Tags: Microsoft, Indiana, Matthew Kotchen, Daylight Saving Time, Daylight Savings Time, RSS,DST. 3,530,000; 6,950,000; 649,000+